Projected ecosystem data - Czech Republic

Vysočina Region in the Czech Republic with 219 000 ha of forest has been heavily affected by bark beetle attacks since 2017. Therefore, the restoration focuses on regenerating forests by establishing new mixed forest stands (including 3 and more tree species in each forest stand) with an increased rate of natural regeneration of pioneer species like Betula, Populus, Alnus and Salix. Also, in some stands spruce will be replaced by other tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Abies spp., Quercus spp. and Acer spp.). The restoration of Vysočina North Moravia also aims to improve the biodiversity. Projections are made with the EFISCEN-Space model under a moderate climate change scenario of RCP4.5. Disturbance Scenarios (1) intense Ips and (2) moderate Ips will lead to substantial volume loss in coming decades and a totally changed forest resource by 2040–2060. While a recovery period occurs in both scenarios, by 2100, standing volumes remain significantly (250 and 330 m³/ha) lower than in the baseline scenario (450 m³/ha). In the baseline, assuming very limited influence of bark beetle, diameters of harvested trees increase from currently mostly 40–60 cm to 60+ diameters. 
Forest structure will shifts toward smaller trees and more broadleaved species in both Ips scenarios. While in (1) intense Ips scenario, volume and increment decrease to approximately 50 % of the Baseline in 2100, in (2) moderate Ips scenario, the reduction of spruce is partially substituted by an increased share of other conifers such as Douglas fir, Quercus spp. and long lived broadleaved. These drastic restoration scenarios created by large disturbances will lead to unsustainable developments for several decades and large volumes of harvestable wood in the coming decades. This seems almost unavoidable, although the speed at which it occurs can be influenced and moderated by management. In the longer term, less wood will be available and variety will change drastically. Early adaptation and keeping bark beetle outbreaks under control to slow down the transformation is advisable.