Projected ecosystem data - Germany

This case, using the EFISCEN-Space forest resource projection model, focuses upon the restoration actions in the German demo. Overall the key findings of the study revealed that bark beetle calamity management was undertaken across an area of 87,000 ha (out of a total 854,000 in NRW), either through developing a more mixed broadleaved approach, or through a wood production emphasis. Due to the impacts, the NRW forest may lose some 50-70 million tonnes of CO2 between now and 2050. As a result the forest composition would change in all scenarios; with only Restoration Scenario 2 allowing recovery to former levels, in terms of both total volume and standing stock. Reduction of larger dbh classes, particularly of broadleaved trees (due to relatively high harvesting pressure) in all scenarios will potentially have implications for biodiversity. However the relative stability of broadleaved species in dbh classes 90-100 suggests that, comparatively, the restoration scenarios provide the best conditions for supporting biodiversity. Overall, the scenarios differ in their potential for climate change mitigation, with Restoration Scenario 2 offering the highest potential (although in all scenarios, the NRW forests will go through long phases of carbon loss). Significantly, the restoration of disturbed sites with broadleaved species will take time and will be associated with reduced harvesting volumes (1-2 million m3/y), for a period of decades. Overall, more broadleaved wood will be available and lower volumes of coniferous products. The 87000 ha of restoration required will have significant cost implications; around 1 billion Euros at an average ha price of 11.5k Euro (as specified according to the workplan), or some 40 million per annum, if undertaken until 2050.