Projected ecosystem data - Sweden

The Swedish demo area is located entirely in the Vindelälven-Juhttátahkka UNESCO Biosphere Reserve, covering a vast 1.3 million hectare river catchment from the alpine regions of the Scandinavian Mountain Range bordering Norway to the coast of the Gulf of Bothnia. The forests within the Biosphere Reserve are naturally dominated by native conifers, primarily Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) and Picea abies (Norway spruce), along with deciduous trees such as Betula pendula, Betula pubescens, Populus tremula, Salix caprea, Sorbus aucuparia and Prunus padus. Different restoration actions are performed in the Swedish demo area. In Ume Älvdal, Norway spruce is removed to create large areas of deciduous dominated forest. In Ecopark Skatan, improvements are made for connectivity and reindeer herding. This Swedish projection report is part of the deliverable D6.5 on projected ecosystem data. The forest development under varying restoration scenarios is projected for the upcoming 30 years, until 2055, using the EFISCEN-Space model. Four scenarios are simulated with the EFISCEN-Space model, a business as usual scenario (BAU) where the forest development under current management is simulated and three alternative scenarios under which 5 management regimes are used in different shares on the forest. The first alternative scenario is a dogma shift scenario, the second is a polarisation scenario and the third alternative scenario focuses on biomass production and not upon nature value. The model projections showed that none of the alternative scenarios were able to maintain the harvest levels of the BAU scenario, however the species composition, structural composition and increment increased in the alternative scenarios. Unmanaged forest in these stands leads to a larger growing stock and thus carbon storage. However, for creating a more diverse and resilient forest, interventions like thinning and planting are needed.