Corporations from sectors like insurance, banking, FMCG, retail, and technology are increasingly purchasing high-quality carbon credits as part of their sustainability and net-zero strategies. Market forecasts predict that the VCM could grow sevenfold by 2030, with the value of ARR credits rising from $0.2 billion in 2023 to an estimated $1.6 billion by 2030 and high-quality credits potentially reaching $228 per tonne by 2050.
Concerns over greenwashing and exaggerated emission reduction claims have shifted buyer preferences toward projects that offer verifiable carbon removals rather than merely avoiding emissions. New buyer groups, including tech giants and financial investors, are entering the market, attracted by rising credit prices and clearer regulatory frameworks. Recent US and EU regulations are driving higher transparency and quality standards, further boosting demand for reliable removals. While traditional reforestation efforts face challenges such as limited scale, long lead times, labour intensity, and operational constraints like limited tree nursery capacity and climate uncertainties, the integration of modern technologies – such as satellite monitoring and drone seeding – can significantly improve efficiency and outcomes. Additionally, the transfer of carbon rights from landowners to investors is a key financing mechanism, enabling companies to claim certified carbon removals and support their climate goals. Ultimately, addressing the supply-demand gap for high-quality ARR credits is crucial for advancing both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.
Opportunities arise from macroeconomic and regulatory changes, along with various technological and financial innovations and growing professional experience. However, persistent barriers to upscaling include the ongoing lack of highly profitable investment opportunities and the multitude of risks facing investors.