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Landowners / Practitioners

2.7 Risk mitigation

tree winds climate change.jpeg

Managing risks is key to successful forest restoration. If future threats are not considered, even well-planned projects can fail to provide long-term benefits. As climate change increases the frequency and severity of forest disturbances, it is more important than ever to take a broad and proactive approach to managing these risks. This means planning restoration in a way that strengthens forests and helps prevent damage before it happens. One effective approach is replacing single-species forests with mixed forests. Forests with a variety of tree species are better able to cope with events like storms and pest outbreaks, because different trees respond differently to stress. This diversity reduces the chance of widespread forest damage.

Assessing risks is an important first step in forest restoration, especially as climate change increases pressure on forests. To make restoration last, managers need to think ahead and consider what could threaten the forest in the coming years, not just current site conditions.

Common risks include hotter temperatures, changing rainfall, more frequent droughts, storms, pests, diseases, and invasive species. If these risks are ignored, restored forests may suffer high tree mortality or fail to develop as planned. A practical risk assessment starts by identifying which of these threats are most likely at a given site. For example, dry sites may face increasing water stress, while other areas may be more exposed to storms, fire, or erosion.

Regular field observations are one of the simplest and most effective tools. Signs such as poor seedling survival, dying tree crowns, slower growth, or changes in timing of leafing and flowering can all indicate that trees are struggling. When these problems appear across many trees or age classes, it may be necessary to adjust management or introduce more suitable species.

Understanding how well a forest can regenerate on its own is another key step. Natural regeneration can work well, but only if there are enough healthy, well-spread mature trees and if the regenerating species are likely to cope with future climate conditions. If regeneration is dominated by species that are expected to decline, active planting or enrichment may be needed.

Browsing by deer and other large herbivores is a common and practical challenge. Where browsing pressure is high, young trees often need protection through fencing or individual guards. Monitoring browsing levels helps determine whether protection is necessary. In some cases, controlled grazing can also be useful, for example to reduce fuel loads in fire-prone areas.

Site conditions should also be checked carefully. Compacted soils, poor drainage, low nutrients, or invasive plants can limit tree establishment and make climate impacts worse. These issues are common on degraded or heavily managed sites and may require site preparation or targeted interventions.

Simple decision-support tools can help with planning. Tools such as Seed4Forest can support practitioners by showing which tree species and seed sources are likely to perform well under future climate conditions. This helps avoid planting trees that may struggle in the coming decades and supports better-informed species selection.

Risk management should not focus only on reacting to damage after it happens. It also includes preparing forests to better withstand future disturbances. This means designing restoration with resilience in mind from the start. Mixed forests with several tree species are generally more resistant to storms, pests, and diseases than single-species stands. Structural diversity after disturbances can also help forests recover more quickly.

Disturbances such as storms, fires, or pest outbreaks cannot and should not be completely avoided. They are a natural part of forest dynamics and can create opportunities to improve forest resilience. Canopy openings, for example, can be used to introduce more diverse and climate-adapted species. Proactive measures—such as reducing stand density, encouraging advance regeneration, or adjusting rotation lengths—often require more effort early on but help reduce damage and costs in the future. Planning ahead makes it easier to respond effectively when disturbances occur.

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